Valorant Champions 2023 predictions: how many viewers will the grand final attract?

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Valorant Champions 2023, the final event of the Valorant esports season, is taking place in the USA right now. Sixteen teams from around the world have gathered in Los Angeles to determine the fate of the championship cup and compete for a prize pool of $2.25 million. Based on the initial matches of the group stage, Esports Charts analysts have predicted the potential audience for the tournament's Grand Final. 

To forecast the number of viewers for the final match, we have analyzed the popularity of the teams in the current season of affiliate leagues, as well as data from last year's Valorant Champions 2022. The experience from the previous world championship showed that the Peak viewership for the finalists' match roughly doubled compared to their performance during the Group Stage. Based on this, we have made an estimation of how many viewers the Valorant Champions 2023 final match will attract.

Main factor: Valorant Champions 2023 participants have varying levels of popularity. Some teams consistently attract a large audience, while others struggle to attract viewers and only show high numbers during matches against top opponents. Based on data from affiliate leagues, we have identified the three most popular Valorant Champions 2023 participants, who have the highest Average Viewers number per match. In other words, they attract a large audience regardless of who they are playing against. These teams are LOUD, ZETA DIVISION, and NRG — representatives of Brazil, Japan, and the USA, respectively. LOUD stands out even among its "neighbors" in the scenario, as it is one of the most popular teams in the region, consistently attracting almost 300K Average Viewers even in its domestic league thanks to its huge fan base in Brazil.

In theory, if two out of these three teams play in the Grand Final, the chances of attracting a large number of viewers significantly increase.

Three scenarios for the Valorant Champions 2023 Grand Final

Esports Charts analysts have considered three scenarios for the Valorant Champions 2023 Grand Finals: positive, average, and negative (from the audience's perspective). In the positive scenario, it is assumed that the most popular teams will face each other in the final. Based on past World Championship experience, their Peak viewership during the Grand Final will double. According to this theory, the match between LOUD, ZETA DIVISION, and NRG is expected to gather around 1.3 million Peak Viewers in the Grand Final. Analysts have a deviation of +/- 20% from this value, so in the positive scenario, the Grand Final is projected to be watched by 1 million to 1.6 million Peak Viewers. It is worth noting that the Valorant Champions 2022 final drew 1.5 million PV.

In the negative scenario, we have analyzed the teams that gathered the smallest audience in the first few days of the tournament. Bilibili Gaming, EDward Gaming, and FunPlus Phoenix (already eliminated) made it into this Top 3. Interestingly, three representatives from China ended up there — it is obvious that these teams generate the least interest for Western viewers, as China doesn't even have its own affiliate league. In fact, the Chinese Valorant scene has its own independent existence and is mostly interesting to local fans. If any two of these teams meet in the finals, their match will attract around 825K PV. With a margin of +/- 20%, the potential audience for the Grand Final can range from 660K to 990K PV.

All the remaining teams that did not fit into the positive and negative scenarios are included in the average scenario. Potentially, the Grand Final with these participants can attract from 866K to 1.3 million PV. As you can see, there are certain intersections between the ranges of each scenario.

How many Hours Watched will the Valorant Champions 2023 Grand Final accumulate?

Esports Charts analysts have also estimated how many hours of watch time the Grand Final may accumulate, taking into account each of the three scenarios. In this case, we have considered different score options (from 3:0 to 3:2). The minimum number of HE would be in the negative scenario, if Bilibili Gaming and EDward Gaming meet in the final and play a quick series with a score of 3:0. In this case, the match will only accumulate 2.3 million HW. It is important to note that in our analysis, we only use data from international streaming services like Twitch and YouTube. The Chinese audience primarily watches matches on domestic platforms, which use different algorithms to calculate popularity (Heat Index). Data from Chinese platforms are not included in the overall statistics, so all Chinese teams are included in the negative scenario.

The maximum result in this metric is only possible in a positive scenario, if LOUD, ZETA DIVISION, and NRG Esports meet in the final and play a long series on all five maps (score 3:2). In this case, the match could accumulate around 6.1 million HW. Therefore, even in the most positive development of events, it turns out that the Valorant Champions 2023 final will accumulate fewer HW than last year's tournament final (6.4 million HW).

Problems with broadcast languages and time zones at Valorant Champions 2023?

Why do we expect that the total Hours Watched number of the Valorant Champions 2023 Grand Final could be so low? Firstly, judging by the first days of the Group Stage, almost all main broadcast languages have significantly declined. Compared to last year's tournament, English has lost about 25% of its Average Viewers number, despite it being the most popular language in Valorant. Japanese and Indonesian have lost 40%, while French has declined by 37% of AV. Portuguese is in a slightly better situation, as it has only lost 6% compared to Valorant Champions 2022. Korean, Vietnamese, and Turkish have seen slight growth, but their positive dynamics do not compensate for the decline in other languages.

It is important to note that some broadcast languages are closely tied to specific teams. For example, Korean broadcasting is most active during DRX matches. As soon as this team leaves the tournament, the number of viewers on the Korean broadcast drastically decreases. A similar situation occurs with Japanese broadcasting, as most Japanese viewers only come to watch ZETA DIVISION matches. 

The second important factor is time zones. Valorant Champions 2022 took place in Istanbul, and the current World Championship is being held in Los Angeles. The local time zone should not significantly affect European broadcasts, but it is very inconvenient for the Asian audience. Esports Charts analysts have suggested that Japanese, Korean, and Indonesian broadcasts may lose around 40% of the Average viewership from last year. It is important to remember that 7 out of the 16 tournament participants represent Asia.

The chances of Valorant Champions 2023 gathering fewer viewers than last year are quite high. However, it is important to consider that all predictions regarding the tournament's viewership statistics are valid at the time of this article's release, and the situation may still change until the Playoff stage. Essentially, the involvement of one or two strong community casters can significantly alter the projected numbers in a positive direction.