How can Worlds 2024 break the all-time esports viewership record?

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2024 World Championship is happening in Europe, marking the biggest event of the year in the professional League of Legends scene and one of the largest in esports overall. The first matches have already attracted over a million viewers at peak, but will this tournament break the record set by last year’s championship?

It’s worth noting that we’ve made projections for the maximum audience based on publicly available data. Our estimates focus only on streaming platforms that openly share viewer numbers, such as Twitch, YouTube, and AfreecaTV. We’re not including Chinese platforms since they don’t disclose viewer data, making it impossible to gauge their impact.

Here’s a great example of how this works: Riot Games estimated that the 2024 Valorant Championship attracted over 3.5 million viewers at its peak, making it the most popular tournament for the game. The company was able to accurately count the number of Chinese viewers on its own site and received precise data from regional partners. In contrast, statistics from Esports Charts, which gathers data from open sources, show that the Valorant Champions 2024 had only 1.41 million Peak Viewers.

On paper, the match between T1 and a Chinese team would likely have drawn the largest audience, but it’s impossible to pinpoint the exact number. Most Chinese fans watch the event on local platforms that don’t disclose viewer data. This is why the grand finals featuring Chinese teams aren’t included in our main scenarios, though that doesn’t take away from the strength and popularity of those teams.

For our projections, we based our estimates on two factors: the teams’ popularity in the current season and viewership trends from past World Championships. For the first factor, we looked at the average viewership of teams in their domestic leagues, excluding international tournaments. For the viewership dynamics at the World Championship, we analyzed the last four tournaments in the series.

The best viewer stats for the 2024 World Championship would only be achievable if T1 makes it to the grand finals. The Korean team has been the clear leader in League of Legends popularity for years. They boast one of the highest Average Viewers ratings among all esports teams, and matches featuring T1 consistently rank among the most-watched.

However, a lot needs to fall into place for this to happen. The reigning world champions had a tough summer season in the LCK and were almost at risk of missing the main tournament. Right now, T1 doesn’t seem like the obvious favorite it was last year, making their performance hard to predict.

If T1 does make it to the grand finals of Worlds 2024, the identity of their opponent will also play a crucial role in the overall viewership. Since the tournament is being held in Europe, the ideal scenario would be for them to face a team from the local LEC league. This would maximize engagement with the European audience. North American or Brazilian teams could also be solid opponents for T1, but given the significant difference in skill levels compared to South Korea and China, it’s unlikely that teams from those regions will reach the grand finals.

If T1 doesn’t make it to the grand finals, we’re looking at a more typical scenario where other South Korean teams face top contenders from Europe, North America, or Brazil. The ideal matchup would be Gen.G against a leading European team, like G2 Esports or Mad Lions KOI. While Gen.G isn’t as popular as T1, they’ve boosted their media presence in recent years with strong performances in the LCK, and just a few months ago, they won the Mid-Season Invitational 2024.

In the unfavorable scenario, we’re talking about Chinese teams and those with low Average Viewers ratings — most teams from the Play-In stage fit this description, though there are exceptions. For example, teams from the VCS performed well in their early matches, and the Vietnamese language even outpaced English in peak viewership so far at Worlds 2024. However, these scenarios are quite unlikely, as they would require a series of missteps from all the top and more popular teams.

The 2024 World Championship started strong, but it will need to put in significant effort to beat last year’s viewer numbers. The 2023 World Championship had an almost perfect grand finals setup for viewership — it took place in South Korea, with T1, the most popular team in the league, playing at home. As a result, the grand finals peaked at 6.4 million viewers, making it the most popular match in esports history.

Can the 2024 World Championship raise the bar even higher? We need to consider additional factors that could help or hinder the tournament in setting a new viewer record:

1. T1’s Struggles: Last year, T1 was a favorite and became the champion, but this year they barely made it to the tournament, clinching the last spot at the LCK Regional Finals 2024. While they might find their rhythm as the championship progresses, it’s too early to tell.

2. More Unique Streaming Channels: Over 125 channels covered the matches of the 2023 World Championship, surpassing last year’s tournament even before the main stage began.

3. Time Zone Challenges: The tournament schedule isn’t very convenient for viewers in Asia. For instance, the grand finals are set to kick off at 11:00 PM Seoul time, assuming there are no delays. This means a best-of-five series could stretch late into the night.

4. New Platforms: The current championship is being streamed on platforms like NimoTV, CHZZK, and SOOP, which weren’t available last year. Plus, the number of channels on TikTok has significantly increased, including official streams from Riot Games. 

The 2024 World Championship is running from September 25 to November 2 in Europe, with various stages hosted in Berlin, France, and London. You can keep up with the results and viewer stats on the reporting page.