Disclaimer: the article was written by Vladyslav Nazarkin, Product Marketing Manager in WePlay Esports. Author compares two largest team-based shooters (CS:GO & Valorant) and compares disciplines in terms of their business models, audience, popularity among the viewers, and also shares his opinion on which discipline might be more interesting for business and tournament operators in the first place. Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Esports Charts editorial office.
Counter-Strike has been here for a very long time. It’s safe to say that the series defined team-based shooting esports, and it’s still one of the biggest esports titles. However, are the positions of its latest installment so safe? Is CS:GO a safe bet in the industry right now and in the foreseeable future?
Valorant is filled with fresh energy. It burst into the shooting esports area quite effectively, drawing the attention of players, tournament organizers, and sponsors. Will this game be able to beat the position of its well-established competitor?
As product marketing manager at a big tournament organizer, I’m especially interested in those questions. The answers determine both the company’s long-term strategy and day-to-day activity of the team. In my opinion, the research on this topic would also be interesting for each business and every personality connected to the area — what game is worth investing time and money. Not only is this article based on my personal experience but also it provides a variety of statistical numbers to support the conclusion.
Entering the market
Gaining momentum is very important for the modern esports industry. With many games available, viewers might be pretty reluctant to try out something new instead of rooting for their favorites and enjoying the familiar action.
Also, momentum was very important for the times when there was no such a thing as esports competition. To become popular, a game had to really capture the hearts of players, motivate them share the passion with others, create a community around one particular title, and build the whole tradition of tournaments from scratch.
The First Tournament. Different business approach
Counter-Strike and Valorant had totally different starts. Let’s take a look at this aspect.
While talking about CS:GO, we should remember the long history of the series. The original game (and especially its 1.6 version) exploded in the minds and hearts of so many gamers, so the launch of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive in 2012 was powered by that interest.
Valorant was created in a different world. Esports was already a sustainable industry (largely thanks to CS:GO), and the developer (Riot Games) worked on the product keeping the esports aspect in mind. In addition to that, the company has a successful experience with their primary game, League of Legends, which Riot used for making Valorant an exceptional product.
One big difference between Valorant and CS:GO on the starting stage (esports industry-wise) is the business model of the official tournaments. Riot Games invests in their project to make it explode and get the gamers’ attention.
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The first series of tournaments for Valorant is First Strike. It was organized by Riot Games and consisted of 18 events. The prize pool reached $100,000 in some regions (such as Korea, Europe, and North America).
Valve… Well, first they followed the traditional scheme of selling games. Their esports investments were very limited.
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The first-ever CS:GO tournament was by a 3rd-party organizer (almost community-driven) — Copenhagen Games, 2012. It had €1,000 of the prize pool.
Then, Valve changed their approach and entered the game. That allowed CS:GO numbers to shoot sky high.
The company started using revenue from selling cosmetic items, skins, as a source of funding. That happened in 2013, after the introduction of the Arms Deal update. It was a big turning point for the game in general, which made CS:GO the game we know (and love) now.
The decision to enable skin trading on Steam and 3rd-party platforms created a unique phenomenon of the skins market, which boosted the general economy around CS:GO.
The esports industry around Counter-Strike: Global Offensive suddenly became self-sufficient. Initially, the prize pools of CS:GO Majors were $250,000 (DreamHack Winter 2013), but they reached the level of $1,000,000 just in three years (ESL One: Cologne 2016).
What’s with Valorant’s economy? Riot Games still needs to prove sustainability of their project. They sell cosmetic weapon skins in the internal store. Unlike CS:GO, this game doesn’t allow 3rd-party platforms to trade these skins, which definitely should affect the general revenue.
CS:GO — Survivalist
Sustainable economy, the long history of the series, and a big dedicated community secure positions of CS:GO for now.
Counter-Strike as a series is ancient. The latest game is already old. Still, it’s kind of forever young. And the developers don’t have much need to close this installment and release the next one. Their effort to support CS:GO and update it to modern standards are sufficient.
Even if we put away the main competitive mode of this game (team matches) and take a look at significantly less popular Danger Zone mode, we still will be able to see Valve following the trends. When Battle Royal games (PUBG, Fortnite) have their moment of glory, CS:GO gets the same mode and survives the harsh period — the players satisfy their interest without abandoning their favorite game and then return to the primary entertainment. The developers could hardly get a new audience for the Danger Zone. But at least, they did not lose the current players.
Another thing to mention is the transition of the game to the free-to-play model. Despite losing some of the direct revenue, Valve got a significant boost in the player base:
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After the introduction of the free-to-play model, the concurrent average concurrent monthly audience grew from 321,531.01 in 2018 to 398,361.12 in 2019. [source]
That success continued with well-known unfortunate events in the real world. During the pandemic, CS:GO reached new impressive records.
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In 2020, the first year of pandemic, the average concurrent monthly audience of CS:GO grew to 657,265.7.
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In 2021, the same statistic is 562,402.5. [source]
In the esports department, CS:GO has had a relatively stable situation since 2016. The prize money is the same; the viewer stats increase.
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Intel Extreme Masters XVI - Cologne (July 2021) offered $1,000,000 of the prize pool and got 842,972 peak viewers, 235,274 average viewers, and 22,076,482 hours watched;
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ESL Pro League Season 14 (August - September 2021) — $750,000, 758,567 peak viewers, 133,908 average viewers, and 29,671,700 hours watched;
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The prize pool of the PGL Major Stockholm 2021 (October-November 2021) reached $2,000,00 due to the previous Major event in Rio being canceled. It got 2,748,434 peak viewers, 593,061 average viewers, and 71,266,120 hours watched.
It doesn’t seem like CS:GO is shaken too much by the new competitor. The growth is real.
Valorant — Powerful newbie
Valorant is not a small game. The developer is Riot, a company with LoL in its portfolio. Not only do they know how to make games but also they are experts in supporting their products in the wild esports area.
In general, Valorant is still behind CS:GO in terms of competitive esports. Still, we witness some promising growth, and the reputation of Riot Games gives the feeling that sky's the limit here.
So, what about the stats?
Average unique monthly Valorant players according to activeplayer.io:
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July 2020 — 15,606,000
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August 2020 — 15,750,000
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August 2021 — 13,569,985
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September 2021 — 14,166,014
The number of active daily players:
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July 2020 — 1,566,201
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September 2021 — 944,401
Even after the starting period, the interest of the gaming community in Valorant does not decrease that much. We do not witness dramatic drops in the player base; it’s pretty natural to have more players right after release. This relative stability is a good sign.
Also, let’s take a look at some esports stats.
VALORANT Champions Tour 2021 is a series of official esports events happening in different regions. Three biggest tournaments are:
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VCT 2021: North America — $100,000; 261,915 Peak Viewers; 119,781 Average Viewers; 3,413,745 Hours Watched;
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VCT 2021: EMEA — $100,000; 159,728 Peak Viewers; 56,346 Average Viewers; 3,427,702 Hours Watched;
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VCT 2021: Southeast Asia — $100,000; 60,340 peak viewers; 23,274 Average Viewers; 2,065,505 Hours Watched.
The biggest Valorant event of 2021 happens in December. It’s VALORANT Champions 2021. As part of the official series, Riot Games organized S-tier tournaments:
- VALORANT Masters: Reykjavík — $600,000; 1,085,850 Peak Viewers; 488,364 Average Viewers; 25,191,397 Hours Watched.
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VALORANT Masters: Berlin — $700,000; 811,370 Peak Viewers; 389,971 Average Viewers; 33,407,460 Hours Watched.
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VALORANT Champions 2021 — $1,000,000; 1,089,068 Peak Viewers; 469,083 Average Viewers; 46,048,311 Hours Watched.
There is promising stability with the tendency to grow in the esports department. Riot supports the competitive community and warms up interest in pro Valorant. Impressive prize pools and big viewership numbers are reassuring factors that bring both business and gamers to this specific environment. With such pace, it’s easy to see Valorant approaching top positions of CS:GO on the world scene.
CS:GO vs Valorant: The Best Bet for Professionals
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive has an impressive heritage, which is both an advantage and a burden. On the one hand, the game has a stable audience, which only grows throughout the years. The competitive formula works effectively — on the gameplay level and on the bigger scale of the year-to-year tournament cycle.
On the other hand though, despite all the attempts of Valve to make their product fresh and modern, they never can change CS too much — otherwise, it won’t be CS. The esports industry for this title is vast and the level of competition here might be overwhelming. Only big organizers with a successful tournament history might hope to enter the party and eat a piece of the viewers/hours pie.
CS:GO is here to stay — at least for some time. Still, we don’t witness a significant growth of its esports. We have more people in the industry, but also with much more games to choose from.
Valorant looks much more promising on paper. It’s a fresh title that managed to prove itself among gamers and tournament organizers. Riot Games put admirable effort into popularizing the game. The whole market here is smaller, and it’s mostly occupied by the official events. Still, the company might be more open to collaborations. And it is definitely more flexible for bringing fresh ideas into the gameplay and tournaments.
For me personally, it’s hard to see Valorant taking away CS:GO’s crown of the biggest team-based shooter. And also, it’s hard to see a chance for CS:GO to grow as esports even more — if you’ve taken some place in its esports infrastructure, you’ll benefit from that. But entering this business from scratch is costly and unpredictable.
Valorant has a bright future. At this point, it’s relatively easy to catch this train and grow along with this project. But the dependence on the business decisions of Riot Games is inevitable. The company has earned the trust of players and partners, though. There is no big risk here.
I hope my research is interesting and helpful for other professionals in the esports industry. I will definitely return to these numbers in my activity as a marketing product manager at WePlay Esports.
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