On the way to 100 million hours of watch time — MPL Indonesia Season 12 viewership forecast

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Watch time is one of the key metrics of measuring the popularity of esports tournaments. Usually, the leaders in this metric are the largest international championships, with just one exception. Currently, the 12th season of the regional MPL league (Mobile Legends: Bang Bang) is taking place in Indonesia, and it should become the first local and first mobile tournament to surpass 100 million Hours Watched. Previously, this achievement was only accomplished by Worlds, a League of Legends series, and The International, a Dota 2 series.

The league has already accumulated 92.6 million Hours Watched during the Group Stage. This is already a record-breaking result for Mobile Legends: Bang Bang, as well as a record for mobile esports disciplines in general. Additionally, the league still has the Playoff Stage ahead, where the popular team Rex Regum Qeon will continue its struggles. In this article, Esports Charts analysts provide the forecasts for the MPL Indonesia S12 watch time by the end of the season.

Most popular esports tournaments by total Hours Watched (excluding Chinese platforms)

There are several ways to predict the final number of Hours Watched. In a more rudimentary approach, one can estimate the growth between the Group Stage and the Playoff based on previous MPL seasons and then apply these proportions to the current season. This is a rather superficial method that yields inflated results and does not take into account many factors.

In the second method, we have considered factors such as team popularity, number of matches played, match duration, etc. Based on this, three scenarios were created, and three ranges for the estimated number of Hours Watched were chosen.

Forecasts for the total Hours Watched by MPL Indonesia S12

The final number of Hours Watched for MPL Indonesia S12 will heavily depend on the results of Rex Regum Qeon. It is the most popular team in the league (and in the discipline overall), attracting almost a million concurrent viewers on average this season. In the best-case scenario for the league, RRQ should play the maximum number of series in the Playoffs with the maximum number of matches, meaning the team should fall into the lower bracket and win in the final series with a score of 3:2. It is also desirable for RRQ not to meet ONIC Esports before the Grand Final. ONIC Esports is another strong team, whose matches can attract a large number of viewers. Unfortunately, EVOS Legends has already been eliminated from the tournament, and its presence in the Playoffs could have increased the likelihood of the best scenario. The worst scenario for the league would be for Rex Regum Qeon to be eliminated quickly, losing all of its matches with a score of 0:3 and not making it into the Top 3. 

Considering the factors mentioned above and others, our analysts have created three scenarios for the league. In the most unfortunate circumstances, the increase in the Hours Watched compared to the Group Stage will be only 3.56%. In this case, the total number of Hours Watched will reach 95.9 million. In the most favorable scenario, we can expect a 48% increase and a total of 137.3 million HW. The most likely scenario, however, remains the average one, with a 25% increase and approximately 116 million HW. If MPL Indonesia S12 can achieve this final result, the season will make it into the Top 5 most popular esports events in terms of Hours Watched, surpassing The International 10. This would be an incredible success for mobile esports.

The MPL Indonesia S12 Playoff will take place from October 11 to October 15. Six teams will continue to compete in the tournament: ONIC Esports, Rex Regum Qeon, Geek Fam ID, Bigetron Alpha, Rebellion Zion, and Dewa United Esports. You can track the viewership statistics of the tournament on the coverage page.