Can Valorant Champions 2024 final set new viewership record for the game?

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The grand final of Valorant Champions 2024, held in South Korea, is just a few days away. Four teams are competing for the championship title: Sentinels, Team Heretics, Leviatán, and EDward Gaming. Teams represent different franchise leagues and regions, with varying levels of viewer popularity. Esports Charts analysts have predicted the viewership numbers for the grand final based on the potential matchups.

Sentinels had a standout performance at VCT 2024: Masters Madrid, where they clinched the championship. However, their performance in subsequent seasons of the Americas domestic league was less impressive, with the team never finishing higher than 5th place. At Valorant Champions 2024, Sentinels have continued to struggle, showing a performance far from their championship level and losing series to Gen.G and EDward Gaming. In the lower bracket, Sentinels will face Team Heretics, a matchup that didn't occur in the group stage but will be featured in the playoffs.

The Top 4 teams of Valorant Champions 2024 / Photo: x.com/ValorantEsports

Team Heretics, on the other hand, had a disappointing showing at their home tournament in Madrid but reached the final of VCT 2024: Masters Shanghai. While they have performed well in the EMEA league, they have yet to secure a championship. At Valorant Champions 2024, Team Heretics went undefeated in a challenging group, defeating FunPlus Phoenix and Gen.G, and won their first playoff match against Fnatic. Their loss to Leviatán was surprising, but Leviatán has proven they should not be underestimated on the world stage.

Leviatán has had a strong performance in their domestic Americas league this year, even winning the second-stage championship. Despite previous struggles on the international stage, their fortunes might be changing at Valorant Champions 2024. Leviatán has already defeated Team Vitality, Talon Esports, and G2 Esports. Their victory over Team Heretics was a significant surprise, highlighting their potential to make a global impact for the first time.

EDward Gaming has a story similar to Leviatán's. The Chinese team excelled in their domestic league, winning two consecutive seasons. However, their international performances have been less consistent, with their highest finishes being 5th place at the Masters tournaments in Madrid and Shanghai. In the group stage of Valorant Champions 2024, EDward Gaming showed inconsistency, losing some maps by large margins. Despite these issues, EDG advanced to the upper bracket semifinals and unexpectedly defeated Sentinels. Before the match, bookmakers and experts had estimated the American team's chances of winning at 65-70%.

Valorant Champions 2024 Grand Final Forecast

EDward Gaming and Leviatán will compete in the upper bracket of the playoffs to secure the first spot in the grand final. Meanwhile, Sentinels and Team Heretics will continue their battle for survival in the lower bracket.

In terms of audience reach, a grand final featuring Sentinels versus Team Heretics would be ideal. Both teams are frequently covered by prominent community casters in their respective language groups, such as tarik, mixwell, ibai, Kyedae, TheGrefg, and FNS. This matchup could potentially draw even more viewers than the grand final itself.

To forecast the potential viewership numbers for the grand final, our analysts considered different playoff scenarios. We used two methods for this prediction. The first method is team-based and involves analyzing historical viewership trends of finalist teams from previous world championship finals.

In a Bad-case scenario, if the grand final features Leviatán against either Team Heretics or EDward Gaming, peak viewership is expected to be between 1.05 million and 1.28 million viewers.

In a Good-case scenario, where the grand final features Sentinels versus EDward Gaming, peak viewership could reach between 1.22 million and 1.41 million viewers. This optimistic outlook is largely driven by Sentinels, who lead in average viewership per match, watch time, and peak numbers. As North America's representative, Sentinels benefit from the strong presence of English-language broadcasts and a prominent pool of English-speaking community casters. Without Sentinels in the final, the tournament is unlikely to achieve top viewership statistics.

The second method looks at viewership trends from previous Valorant Champions tournaments between stages. Esports Charts analyst Rodion Horbunov believes that if Sentinels make it to the grand final, peak viewership could set a new record for the title. Currently, the highest viewership record is held by VCT 2024: Masters Madrid, which reached a peak of 1.68 million concurrent viewers.

“Analyzing peak viewership trends from past Valorant Champions tournaments (2021-2023) between the Lower Bracket Quarterfinals and the Grand Final, it is anticipated that Valorant Champions 2024, featuring the most popular teams, could exceed the viewership records of previous years. The tournament has the potential to set a new record for the game, with peak viewership reaching approximately 1.7 million concurrent viewers.” 

Rodion Horbunov, Esports Charts analyst

Note that Valorant Champions 2023 peaked at 1.29 million concurrent viewers, a significant drop from the 2022 numbers. The decisive matches for Valorant Champions 2024 will be held from August 23 to 25. You can track the tournament's progress on the Esports Charts report page.