LCS keeps losing audiences — what are the reasons for league viewership problems?

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LCS audience continues to drop. The Spring Split drew fewer viewers compared with last year's League of Legends competition (the statistics of which were not impressive anyway), which caused the community to speculate on the reasons for the trend. Esports Charts has analyzed the most popular theories and evaluated their objectivity.

LCS Spring 2023 Group Stage did not differ much from LCS Spring 2022 and LCS Summer 2022 stages by the Average Viewers number per game. That number was virtually unaffected by the fact that the organizers moved game days from Saturday and Sunday to Thursday and Friday. The playoffs and Grand Final, on the other hand, are a different story: the difference between seasons is more significant.

Hypothesis #1: The playoffs draw fewer viewers due to the elimination of popular teams

It is more correct to compare the LCS Spring 2023 playoffs with the LCS Spring 2022 season, which had an identical format, rather than with last season (which had a different format and more teams in the playoffs). Compared with last year's Spring season, the Average Viewers' number decreased by 17.4%, and the Peak Viewers' number decreased by 29.9%. League of Legends fans have suggested that the outflow of viewers was due to Team Liquid being unsuccessful in the Group Stage and not playing in the playoffs.

In fact, Team Liquid is one of the most popular clubs in the region (and in the world), and it has surpassed many other teams of the league. During the LCS Spring 2022 playoffs, the Average Viewers number at Team Liquid games was 179.8K (the team ranked second behind the 100 Thieves by this metric). In comparison, the most popular team in the LCS Spring 2023 playoffs, FlyQuest, had about 150K AV.

In summary, Team Liquid has a bit larger audience than most other LCS members. If it played in the playoffs, one could expect a higher online rate in its matches than in the games of the majority of other rosters.

Team Liquid was among the most popular teams of LCS Spring 2023 Group Stage

Hypothesis #2: The entire tournament was covered less by the community casters, which caused numbers to drop

LCS Spring 2023 was covered on 34 channels, nearly three times more than during the LCS Spring 2022. Thus, the share of official LCS channels on Twitch and YouTube decreased from 88.5% to 80.2% of the total tournament Hours Watched (for LCS Spring 2022 and LCS Spring 2023, respectively).

When it comes to particular channels, the LCS channel on Twitch lost 3.1 million Hours Watched (-27.2%) compared with last spring. Doublelift, the most popular community channel in the region, lost 620K Hours Watched (-77.5%) over the same period. In contrast, the channels of other independent streamers like iwdominate and sneakylol showed significant growth. 

To sum up, the biggest audience outflow was on the league's official channels, not the community streamers. 

Big difference between LCS Spring 2023 and other seasons

Hypothesis #3: The final drew few viewers due to the small number of channels that covered it

There were talks that many channels simply didn't broadcast the Grand Final, so the total number of viewers was lower than it could have been. In fact, this is not true.

The LCS Spring 2023 final was covered by channels that accumulated a total of 98.6% of the total Hours Watched of the entire tournament. Moreover, the knockout stage of the league was covered in Spanish on LLA channels. Thus, the decisive match was broadcast on all major channels, including the community casters.

Hypothesis #4: The final drew few viewers due to the unpopular teams playing

The final series between Cloud9 and Golden Guardians was the most popular game of the tournament, drawing 271K PV. Other teams could have drawn more viewers, and here's why:

1) Prior to the Grand Final, Cloud9 and Golden Guardians teams faced off against each other in the Group Stage, and then their series was far from the most popular. The most popular match in the Group Stage was the game between Cloud9 and 100 Thieves, as it attracted 178.8K PV. In turn, the series between Cloud9 and Golden Guardians in the Group Stage was watched by 151.8K PV: the difference was 17.8%.

2) The Grand Final could seem boring and predictable because of the differences in the status of the participants. Cloud9 has been in the American League for almost a decade, winning numerous splits and being victorious in one of the regional seasons almost every year. Cloud9 has participated nine times in a World Championship, where it has reached the semifinals. Its opponent, on the other hand, was Golden Guardians, a team that had never placed higher than fifth in its home league before the LCS Spring 2023, and had never played in a World Championship.

Hypothesis #5: The coverage of the Grand Final matches was affected by other tournaments running on the same day

In order to check this hypothesis, we have analyzed which games are still of interest to LCS Spring 2023 viewers. We found that about 62.5% of the viewers watch Valorant broadcasts. Simultaneously with the LCS Spring 2023 final, the VCT 2023: Americas League games were being played: Sentinels faced off against NRG Esports, and MIBR played against KRU Esports. But could they have drawn a significant share of the audience away from the LCS final?

The point is that this kind of overlap has already happened in the past — the LCS Spring 2022 final was held at the same time as the VCT 2022: Stage 1 Masters Reykjavík final. Back then, OpTic Gaming and LOUD, two very popular teams with a large fan base, fought for the Valorant championship title. Despite this, the LCS Spring 2022 saw 370K PV.

The LCS Spring 2023 had only 271.3K PV. However, VCT 2023: Americas League can hardly be compared with Masters Reykjavík final. It is unlikely that a parallel tournament in another discipline was the factor that could explain the low viewership of the LCS Spring 2023.

Hypothesis #6: The final was watched by few viewers as the start of the matches was moved to a later time

The new start time of the Grand Final could have had a real impact on the final metrics. The decisive series of the LCS Spring 2022 and the LCS Summer 2022 began two and one hours earlier than the LCS Spring 2023, respectively. LCS Spring 2023 final lasted longer and ended late at night.

Timing and viewership of the LCS Spring 2022, the LCS Summer 2022, and the LCS Spring 2023 final

The time change had a particular effect on European viewers. The first LCS Spring 2023 map began at 22:50 (GMT +2), and the last map ended as late as 02:30. It is interesting that usually the Peak Viewers number is recorded during the final map of the series, but at the LCS Spring 2023, it was recorded during the third map of the four. 

Hypothesis #7: Loss of interest from potential viewers 

We had no need for a complete match of the format to test the hypothesis, so we compared the LCS Spring 2023 to the league's most recent season, the LCS Summer 2022. If we had taken an earlier tournament, there would have been a larger difference in the overall Twitch audience with the LCS Spring 2023. We eventually came to the following conclusions:

1) Only 85% of Twitch viewers of the LCS Summer 2022 final watched other broadcasts in the League of Legends category (prior to the LCS Spring 2023 final). Of those, only 56% watched broadcasts on the official LCS tournament channel, and the rest watched other leagues or streamers.

2) LCS lost about 28.6% of Twitch viewers from the number of those who watched the LCS Summer 2022 final and continue to watch League of Legends streamers, but not on the official LCS channel (which is about 115K viewers).

3) About 8% of viewers who watched the LCS Summer 2022 final (32.8K people) did not visit Twitch at all during LCS Spring 2023.

4) About 7.2% of viewers of the LCS Summer 2022 final (29.5K people) lost interest in League of Legends — they didn't watch the game at all while the league was on air. At the same time, they watched the other categories on Twitch.

How many viewers could have the LCS Spring 2023 final attracted in better scenarios?

Options for improving Peak Viewers for the LCS Spring 2023

Given the above hypotheses, we have considered several scenarios in which the audience for the LCS Spring 2023 final would be greater. Of course, all of these calculations are very approximate, and they were derived from an analysis of the current and previous seasons of the league.

If the most popular teams of the Group Stage had played in the final, the Peak Viewers number could have been 17.8% higher (+48.2K viewers) — theoretically, it could have reached 320K PV.

Another example: the LCS Spring 2022 and Summer 2022 final saw the Peak Viewers numbers between 9:30 PM and 11:30 PM (GMT) while the LCS Spring 2023 final was held later and ended at 00:50 AM (GMT). If the Grand Final of the Spring season had started an hour earlier, its culmination would have coincided with maximum viewership activity, which could have increased the Peak Viewers on the broadcasts by 7.5%.

Based on all of these hypotheses, we can conclude that the LCS has many issues with audience reach, in many different aspects. These difficulties may not seem big on their own, but they have a cumulative effect on the league. This situation is unlikely to be resolved with targeted solutions without a comprehensive approach.